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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Europe Getting Panties In Bunch, Round 1 ~ 100 Years Later

I knew that "Oh So Civilized" stuff was bogus - well actually, I didn't - I actually believed they had a leg up on civility, but it is amazing what 21% unemployment and fat, stupid, lazy and corrupt politicians can accomplish. Are we going to get dragged into this war right away, or will our Peace Loving President, who turned out to be not much different from our last Peace Loving President, wait awhile whilst planning or hoping for some event to justify joining the fun.

This time, I don't really see a front-runner to be the bad-guy, and this war will likely be from the bottom up. I have to give credit to Gerald Celente, the guy has called the events in Northern Africa/Middle East and now Europe almost a year in advance. He is predicting an all out war. He calls it the First World War of the new Millennium. Everybody in my family still thinks I am insane, but when somebody like Celente is saying this, and as I observe his predicted events occur one after the other, I just can't understand how anybody could not take him seriously. It's not like he is reading tea-leaves or interpreting ancient scrolls, he and his research team analyze news, data and the status quo and follow the implied trends to their logical conclusions. He seems to also understand the pitfalls of fitting a line through a few data points and calling it a forecast.

Awhile back, I discussed two fellows who are also in the trend business, and authored a book entitled "The Fourth Turning". We are in such a Fourth Turning now, and they claim that each of the past fourth turnings going back 13 generations, culminated in all-out full blown war. What irritates me about people who say I am fear mongering, or that I am just plain off my rocker, is that they are saying this based on their implicit assumption that the future will be much like the past, rather than any logical, factual basis, and that the future is linear. The Fourth Turning makes a pretty good case for a cyclical approach to trend forecasting. Like Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes".

So this stanza puts us somewhere in the realm of World War I or II. It seems to me there were some austerity measures back then, then a huge currency debacle, then Presto - The world meets Adolf Hitler. Although austerity is hitting the Greeks, and I am not to worried about them trying to take over Europe. But there is even a player from the past getting ready for a repeat performance. UniCredit, seems to be on shaky ground, and they have a history of setting off Great Depressions.

Anyway, keep your eye on events in Europe, you may think they won't affect you, but they sure did 100 years ago, and now we are even more joined at the hip.

Some reading material: European leaders prepare for a Greek default and Lots Of Bubble: PO'ed Greeks Lots of Trouble: Espana no va bueno. Not enough clams.

RH

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